How Collegiate Football Success Affects Real Estate Appreciation [case study]

“Blue 42…Hot Route – RED 7 RED 7…settttt HUT!”

In 2008 I fell in love with who is now my patient & caring wife and awesome mother to our children. She grew up (in-laws still reside) not far from Clemson, SC, so naturally she is a Tigers fan. Myself, I was blessed to be born into the Auburn tribe. Being born and raised in Alabama, you are sworn to an allegiance before your first breath of oxygen. Luckily, a Go Tigers! keeps me out of the dog house and still in the Will. Happy Wife, Happy Parents…how does that saying go?

Back to my point. Since 2008 we have attended and tailgated several football games in Clemson. Great times, joyful memories and truly exciting time to be a Tiger as they have been on a hot streak the last several years. It has been amazing to see how that city has and continues to BOOM since our first football game there together just 9 years ago. New developments, shopping, housing, restaurants, etc. With Real Estate on my mind, I can’t help but wonder if some of that booming is due to the national recognition the school has received via its football program’s success.

Side note: I met Dabo Sweeney in the Tampa airport a while back. One of the coolest individuals I’ve ever met. #ALLIN

Back again to the point of this post. With Clemson’s football success and booming economic development, does this mean real estate values also BOOM? And if so, where is the next sleeping giant in FBS Division I NCAA football? I WANT TO BUY THERE!! I thinks it’s Nebraska, but before I go off investing in Lincoln, let’s do some analyzing to see if my theory holds water.

THE THEORY:  The theory I’m trying to prove is when a school places more frequently in the Top 10 year end BCS/CFP rankings, the more appreciation yields for real estate holdings in that college city.

Another Side Note: Our current investment strategy is primarily focused on cash flow, appreciation is icing on the cake. So while I’m using appreciation for this exercise, it is not a leading factor on whether or not we will invest in a market. 

THE DATA: Before I go and analyze the 129 FBS Division 1 Football Teams, I want to focus on just the Top 10, as they fall at year end rankings. For the sake of the graphic below, which looks like a grandmother’s hand knit quilt, I used the end of regular season BCS Rankings from 2000-2013 and the CFP Rankings from 2014-2017 found on Wikipedia.

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The city and state appreciation values noted below were sourced from NeighborhoodScout.com and this list is sorted by Highest College City Real Estate Appreciation since 2000.

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MY CONCLUSION: Fifty one (51) different teams have placed in the Top 10 BCS/CFP rankings from 2000-2017.  Twenty three of the 51 college city’s listed above, experienced greater real estate appreciation vs the state in which they are located.  Twenty eight did not. So, my conclusion is…the data is inconclusive. Take for example Ohio State. Ohio State has the most Top 10 finishes since 2000 than any other school, but almost the worst appreciation during the same time period. Ruling out an anomaly, look at Hawaii. Only 1 Top 10 finish from 2000-2017 and extremely high appreciation, but let’s face it, where would you rather be?

If anything this exercise proves that collegiate football success over time does not solely yield a higher appreciation for real estate in that college city over the same period of time – an economic boom, certainly.  It’s obvious to me other factors are involved to produce the higher appreciations. Take for example, Washington State. The Cougars are located in Pullman, WA (approx. 30k residents) and with only one Top 10 finish during the review period, experienced 85% real estate appreciation. Compare Pullman, WA, to Auburn, AL (#GoTigers!). Auburn, AL, approx. 54k residents, experienced only 39% appreciation while the school made the Top 10 six times. This play is under further review…

Agree/Disagree?  Let me know why by leaving your comments below.

 And how did your school do? Are they winning at the Game of Appreciation?#GoTIGERS!!

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Wahoo @ the Developments in Pensacola!

With all this excitement, building & revitalizing, the recent announcement of two larger developments in and near downtown Pensacola has me wondering. Is it too fast?
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real estate investing pensacola fl
About 2 years ago we started seeing new construction, but now it’s as if new construction is happening everywhere. From Perdido Key to Gulf Breeze and from Downtown Pensacola to Cantonment. And not just single family homes, but entire neighborhood developments. Just to name a couple, the expansion of Lost Key and with Navy Federal relocating their headquarters to Pensacola, Cantonment is booming. Lots of new construction is exciting, particularly exciting to see how downtown has and continues to revitalize (it was a dump when I visited for a fishing trip just a little over 10 years ago). Now it is awesome.
 
With all this excitement, building & revitalizing, the recent announcement of two larger developments in and near downtown Pensacola has me wondering. Is it too fast?
 

I wasn’t really in the real estate game when the bubble popped in 2006-2008. Ok, ok, I did get the bug on the tail end of the hype (which I’ll write about in an upcoming post), but now that we all know what happened then, are these truly signs of improving times or another economic bust?

It is hard to say and one that only elite experts can predict (recommend watching Adam McKay’s The Big Short), but I don’t think we’re facing another housing crash anytime soon. It is just too damn hard and complicated to get a loan these days. Credit Unions, Banks, mortgage brokers, they are all starting to become 4-letter words to me. Regardless of the lending institution, they are just to damn difficult to deal with. And this is coming from someone who is an ideal candidate for a home loan. Rant over, I’ll save it for another post 🙂

It is exciting to see what’s going on in Pensacola and many people are responsible. I’m glad we just get to experience it. Wahoo!!

Article links to the aforementioned developments: 

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